In summary
In the run-up to the June primary, Democrats are still divided on which candidate would give them their best shot to flip a closely watched House seat.
When Republican Rep. Darrell Issa quit his reelection campaign last month, Democrats celebrated. Now, some are worried.
Issa’s exit is seen as a mixed blessing among Democratic officials who have eyed flipping his San Diego House seat for years. While demonstrators at a No Kings rally last weekend were exultant to see him leave the race, local Democratic organizers are more guarded. The Republican who took his place, San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, is a longtime local official with name recognition, fundraising connections and community relationships — without Issa’s close ties to President Donald Trump.
“If anything, Jim Desmond is a slightly better candidate than Darrell Issa in some regards,” because he is not as closely affiliated with Trump, said Dan Rottenstreich, a spokesperson for Marni von Wilpert, one of two leading Democrats in the race.
The new hotly contested district covers most of East and North County San Diego and parts of Riverside County, including Palm Springs. Its voter makeup shifted from deep red to slightly blue when California voters approved a redistricting plan to try to give the state five more Democratic congressmembers after Texas created five extra Republican seats.
San Diego Democrats, including council member Marni von Wilpert, and former Obama official Ammar Campa-Najjar, are competing with Desmond in a crowded field. The top two vote-getters in the June primary will face off in the November general election, regardless of their party. Given the district makeup, Desmond is expected to secure one of those spots.
With a local background in nonpartisan office, Desmond is a “formidable opponent” to Democrats, said Ross Pike, parliamentarian for the Democratic Club of Fallbrook. Desmond raised nearly $1.4 million by the end of last year and the main GOP re-election campaign arm, the National Republican Congressional Committee, says it’s optimistic about the district as Desmond aims to cast himself as a moderate focused on affordability and immigration.
“He appears more approachable, less polarizing, and he has given grants to different areas, and people know him for that, so it’s going to be tough,” said Amalia Martinez, vice president of communications for the Escondido Democratic Club, which endorsed von Wilpert.
And in a race with many Democrats, party support is divided. In the regional stage of California Democrats’ endorsement process, von Wilpert fell short by a single vote. During the state convention she won more than half of delegates’ votes, but didn’t meet a 60% threshold. Campa-Najjar received 18% of delegates’ support.
Another Democrat, Palm Springs businessman Brandon Riker, is also gaining ground in the Coachella Valley. He raised $1.5 million by the end of the year and was the only other candidate besides von Wilpert and Campa-Najjar to win some votes at the California Democratic Party convention.
“The more Democrats that are on this ballot in the primary, that’s less votes for Marni to get,” Martinez said.
Leading Democrats have responded to Issa’s departure by comparing Desmond to Issa and framing him as a “MAGA extremist,” revisiting his controversial comments downplaying COVID-19 deaths and spotlighting his votes against the county policy that limits ICE agents’ access to county facilities.
Campa-Najjar, a former Obama public affairs official trying to win a San Diego congressional seat for the third time, said he welcomes Desmond to the race.
“Democrats need to be the opposition party to Trump. But we also have to be the opportunity party. We have to have an affirmative message to bring down costs, raise wages, rein in the cost of health care, and make sure that this president abides by the law,” Campa-Najjar said in an interview.
A spokesperson for Desmond said he is focused on public safety and affordability issues. “While Democrats fight among themselves, their crowded field is a reminder of how out of touch they are,” spokesperson Sam Oh said. His campaign declined to make him available for an interview.
Campa-Najjar had raised about $823,000 at the end of last year and has received the most endorsements from members of Congress, including his partner, Democratic Rep. Sara Jacobs. But support has waned locally after two previous unsuccessful congressional campaigns, and some Democrats have criticized him for shifting his policy positions on gun control.
Von Wilpert had raised $520,000 at the end of last year and is endorsed by the state’s labor unions and local San Diego Democratic clubs.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee does not plan to endorse a candidate before the primary.
Democrats turn on each other
A party endorsement would give the winner campaign funding and support from the party. Without it, local organizers and volunteers must try harder to get their preferred candidate’s name out.
“I’m very frustrated, because I will have to knock on more doors,” said Martinez, of the Escondido Democratic Club.
No party endorsement could also weaken Democratic candidates during the primary if they tear each other down and exhaust their campaign funds before the general election. In addition to attacking Desmond, Democrats are turning on each other. Republicans are gleefully highlighting the spat between von Wilpert and Campa-Najjar; she called him anti-LGBTQ for questioning whether she could win voters outside the gay-friendly city of Palm Springs; he accused her of racism for questioning his name changes and residence.
Opponents have also criticized Camp-Najjar for allegedly misrepresenting his military service and allegedly making racist and sexist remarks on MySpace in 2009.
But a tough primary battle could also harden the Democratic front-runners ahead of a November contest with Desmond.
“The advantage of a competitive primary is that it’s forcing Democrats to build their name ID with voters throughout the district, which will only benefit them in the general election,” Pike said.
They have their work cut out. At the No Kings protest, many demonstrators said they weren’t sure who was running in the 48th District, or weren’t following the race closely.
“It’s a little confused,” said John Boyers, a protester at the Escondido rally last weekend. “The herd needs to thin a little.”
The swiftly shifting race has made it tough for voters and candidates to weigh their options. Issa built a reputation as a firebrand conservative 10 years ago when he oversaw several high-profile investigations into the Obama administration.
Desmond, who terms out as county supervisor this year, was previously running for the 49th District and quickly received Issa’s endorsement when he moved to the more competitive 48th District.
Before his exit, Issa was boosted by years of name recognition and relationships. Yet, just three months after telling voters he’d stay in California after briefly considering a run in Texas, Issa announced he was retiring for good. It harkened to the last time he called it quits, in 2018, after his coastal San Diego district at the time, the 49th, became increasingly liberal.
The fact that Issa, one of the wealthiest members in Congress, left the race after 25 years in office is a warning sign for Republicans, strategists say.
“If he looked at it and said ‘no,’ it’s encouraging for Democrats,” political consultant Mason Herron said.
via CalMatters https://ift.tt/U13tsea
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