Likely voters in California narrowly support Proposition 40, the hotly contested billionaire tax proposal — but slim majorities also support two billionaire-backed countermeasures that would nullify the big wealth tax.
That’s according to a new poll of over 1,100 likely voters released last night by the Public Policy Institute of California with two months to go before the November general election.
The survey found Democrat Xavier Becerra maintains a strong lead over Republican Steve Hilton in the race to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom. All three of those leaders are opposed to the tax measure.
Prop. 40 would impose a one-time, 5% tax on the assets of an estimated 200 California billionaires to help offset steep federal cuts to the state’s expansive Medi-Cal health program for low-income residents. The controversial measure, which is backed by a healthcare union, has pitted swaths of organized labor and liberal groups against each other.
The poll found 52% of likely voters favoring the measure with 46% opposed (a statistical tie considering margins of error).
To try to counteract the measure, a group of tech billionaires placed Props. 41 and 42 on the ballot, too. Prop. 41 would block new state tax measures that put their revenues outside of state spending limits, as Prop. 40 does. The poll found 51% of likely voters in support of it.
Prop. 42 would simply ban new state taxes on property and assets, and garnered 54% of likely voters’ support.
Under the California constitution, if two competing ballot measures both pass, the measure receiving the most “yes” votes becomes law.
Those aren’t the only tax measures on Californians’ ballots: There’s also Prop. 3, which would make permanent a higher income tax rate on the state’s highest earners and which garnered 58% support in the poll, and Prop. 43, a measure to make it harder to raise local taxes by increasing the threshold needed for local voters to pass one. Voters appear to be leaning against that measure, with 51% saying they don’t support it.
The poll also found a 55% majority of likely voters opposed to a Republican-supported voter ID initiative to require a government-issued ID at polling places, and majorities supporting several bond measures.
But the poll question that got the most overwhelming support? Nearly 80% of likely voters think there are too many propositions on the ballot.
Speaking of voting: Check out CalMatters’ voter guide and see if our VotingMatters events across the state — where people get together in person and talk about the issues that matter to them — are coming to your area. Our next event is this evening in San Francisco and Thursday in San Diego. Plus, we have a DIY kit to host your own event.
Join CalMatters and the UCR School of Public Policy on Sept. 24 in Riverside for a conversation about our investigation into the Riverside County Sheriff’s Department seizure of mail ballots and what it means for future elections. Register today.
Other Stories You Should Know
First-class travel on taxpayer dime
A nearly $40 luxury Uber ride for a trip less than one mile away. Ride-hailing drives to gyms in Sacramento. And dozens of flights from Denver to California just to “meet with the executive team.” These are some of the questionable trips paid for by California’s High-Speed Rail Authority and flagged in a recent oversight report, write CalMatters’ Yue Stella Yu and Juliet Williams.
The inspector general that oversees the rail authority reviewed $1.15 million in travel reimbursements to outside consulting firms between 2024 and 2026. Of that, the agency approved at least $685,000 in unallowable travel expenses to nightclubs, escape rooms, tiki bars, cigar lounges and more.
The rail authority also routinely reimbursed trips that had vague justifications, such as “typical M-F week” trips. One consultant was paid $40,800 in travel reimbursements and an additional $86,500 in “travel time” for 30 trips between Denver and Sacramento in a year. Another flew their private plane from Washington, D.C. to California and was reimbursed for a premium fare.
GOP Assembly leader Alexandra Macedo of Visalia, a vocal critic of the high-speed rail project, called the spending “wasteful and unallowable.”
Meet the most powerful woman in CA government
In her first year as Senate president pro tem, Monique Limón kept her Democratic caucus united to secure some notable wins and push back against Newsom on issues they disagreed with, report CalMatters’ Kate Wolffe and Maya C. Miller.
During negotiations to help cash-strapped local governments and school districts being sued by people who say they were sexually assaulted as children, the Santa Barbara Democrat and her caucus remained united against refusing to cap the amount of money survivors could seek damages for.
The caucus also backed a plan to address the ballooning costs of wildfires while standing firm against Newsom who wanted to reduce costs for utility companies. Though the plan was ultimately torpedoed by the governor and Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas at the last minute, the Senate had the votes to approve the measure, and some members of Limón’s caucus still considered it a win.
- Sen. Caroline Menjivar, a Van Nuys Democrat: “We did not come out looking like we couldn’t make a decision. We were united in a decision that was made, and we stayed true to it.”
And lastly: Newsom signs wildfire bills
Newsom signed nearly 50 bills into law earlier this week, including laws that aim to improve wildfire recovery and set first-in-the-nation standards for smoke-damage testing and cleanup. Read more from CalMatters’ Levi Sumagaysay.
California Voices
CalMatters columnist Dan Walters: Poverty in California will decline when the costs of housing and living moderate, or when the state’s economy creates jobs — but with both factors continuing in the wrong direction, the state will remain a two-tier society.
Altadena is an unincorporated place in Los Angeles County, and many county agencies are responsible for servicing it — but such dispersion also obscures accountability after disasters, writes Aimery Thomas, managing director of The Future Organization.
Other things worth your time:
Newsom signs law to let these Californians get out of jury duty — for good // CalMatters (free)
Immigrants’ lawyers say US is redacting documents proving legal status // The New York Times (gift link)
California Teachers Association sues state over $3.9B owed to schools // EdSource (free)
CA gas prices hit milestone on steady march upward // San Francisco Chronicle (gift link)
Company eyes ‘large load’ data center in Sacramento that could be region’s biggest // Abridged (free)
Gilroy approves temporary freeze on new data centers // The Mercury News (gift link)
They fought against datacenters. Now they are running for local offices // The Guardian (free)
Some activists want dogs taken away from Skid Row homeless. The city says it’s complicated // Los Angeles Times (paywall)
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