Ten days ago, Congressmember Eric Swalwell was getting very close to becoming the Democratic candidate for governor of California. But then he imploded amidst sensational accusations of sexual harassment and assault.
Within hours of the revelations, Swalwell abandoned his campaign and then resigned from Congress and is now under criminal investigation.
Why Swalwell was leading the field of Democratic hopefuls was never clear. His only claim to political fame was being one of President Donald Trump’s most persistent critics — which, of course, has little to do with governing the nation’s most populous state.
It seemed he was seen as an alternative to billionaire Tom Steyer, who had been spending lavishly on TV and internet ads while positioning himself as a Bernie Sanders-style progressive.
Those turned off by Steyer’s ideology or his wealth were seemingly drifting to Swalwell, who hewed to a more or less moderate line.
Swalwell’s sudden departure left a vacuum that Steyer and the third Democrat in the top tier, former Congressmember Katie Porter, hoped to fill. However, when Swalwell’s disappointed supporters looked at their options, many apparently settled on Xavier Becerra, the mild-mannered former congressmember, state attorney general and Biden administration official.
The Democratic Party released its latest tracking poll on Monday, revealing that the two Republicans, — former TV commentator Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco —are still leading the pack at 16% and 14%.
However the big news was that Becerra had shot up from 4% on April 5 to 13%, topping all Democrats. Both Steyer and Porter gained slightly in the post-Swalwell shakeout but Becerra’s rise is nothing less than phenomenal.
Why?
Perhaps Swalwell’s disillusioned supporters, who obviously had not felt comfortable with Steyer or Porter, were looking for someone dependable and trustworthy — even a little dull — after seven years of Gavin Newsom’s flashy sideshow.
It could be 1982 all over again.
That was the year that a stolid public servant, Republican Attorney General George Deukmejian, defeated wunderkind Gov. Jerry Brown.
Brown, like Newsom, had devoted much of his governorship to seeking national political attention, running for president twice, and the same voters who elected Deukmejian on a law-and-order platform soundly rejected Brown’s bid for a U.S. Senate seat.
Brown publicly acknowledged that he had worn out his welcome — although 28 years later, much older and wiser, he returned to the governorship.
This year’s campaign for governor has been the weirdest of any in at least 80 years, including actor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s improbable victory in 2003. For months, potential candidates dropped in and opted out, two Republicans led the polls in one of the nation’s bluest states, Democratic leaders were openly worried that the GOP could win the governorship by default with a 1-2 finish in the primary and, finally, scandal forced Swalwell out.
The next phase will continue the post-Swalwell reshuffle, with Becerra either continuing his meteoric rise or reaching a plateau and with Democrats still mired in low single digits, deciding whether to continue their campaigns.
“I continue to believe there are too many Democrats in the field,” said Rusty Hicks, Democratic state chair.
An hour before the new poll was released, one of the also-rans, former Controller Betty Yee, tearfully suspended her campaign — understandable, given her 1% standing. Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (2%) and state schools Superintendent Tony Thurmond (2%) are on the bubble. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan gained a bit to 5% and his Silicon Valley backers are now staging a multimillion-dollar ad campaign in hopes of putting him in contention, with mail voting beginning in just two weeks.
Meanwhile it’s still theoretically possible, although not likely, that the two Republicans could finish 1-2, thus guaranteeing election of a GOP governor in November.
In a year as wacky as this one, nothing seemingly impossible should be discounted.
via CalMatters https://ift.tt/gZv3yHE
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