The latest polls suggest it’s a three-way competition for the top-two spots in the California governor’s race, and a big reason that we don’t have a clear sense of who’s ahead is that many Democratic voters are waiting until the last minute to choose a candidate.
In roughly 24 hours, voters across the state will finish deciding whose names will appear on the November ballot to lead California for the next four years.
Three nonpartisan polls released last week showed Democrat Xavier Becerra ahead, with Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Tom Steyer neck-and-neck for the second spot.
Millions have already submitted their ballots before Election Day, but like previous gubernatorial primary elections, turnout has been relatively low compared to general elections: As of Sunday, only 15.10% of all ballots have been submitted, according to the voter data firm Political Data Inc. That’s a similar rate during the June 2022 primary, when 14.53% of ballots were returned three days before Election Day.
The 0.57 percentage point difference may not sound like much, but dig a bit deeper and the data reveals that Democratic voters are turning in their ballots slower than they did in 2022: 15% of Democratic ballots have been returned to date, compared to 17% four years ago. Meanwhile, a higher percentage of Republicans have returned their ballots, with 19% of GOP ballots submitted compared to 17% in 2022.
Paul Mitchell, vice president of PDI, told me three factors likely explain why GOP voters are turning in ballots more quickly. One is that Republicans only have to choose between two candidates, whereas there are six leading Democratic candidates. Republicans also have historically voted early by mail — a practice they appear to be reverting back to after President Donald Trump discouraged them from doing so in 2020.
But older white Democrats are showing the biggest lag, and are either waiting to cast their ballots or have yet to decide who they’re voting for, said Mitchell. California’s top-two primary system enables two candidates of the same party to potentially land on the November ballot, so some liberal voters want to ensure they can advance at least one Democratic hopeful.
- Mitchell: “All the stories about two Republicans making the runoff, they might be calculating their vote to make sure that they’re voting in a way that is strategic to make sure that a Democrat gets onto the general election.”
Kevin Callan, also at PDI, added that while some Democrats might not feel strongly about any of the leading candidates, they still understand the possible long-term implications of their June vote.
- Callan: “Democrat voters know that whichever Democrat candidate makes it into the runoff will be our next governor. That adds more weight to their decision.”
CalMatters’ 2026 Voter Guide is here to help. We break down key races, tell you who’s bankrolling each campaign, help you register to vote and give you all the other information you’ll need to make your vote count. Check it out.
Other Stories You Should Know
Missed warning signs at chemical plant
Fire crews worked around the clock last week to eliminate the threat of a major chemical explosion at GKN Aerospace in Orange County, which forced 50,000 residents to evacuate from their homes. But with the threat of catastrophe over, questions remain about how the situation could have been prevented.
As CalMatters’ Alejandra Reyes-Velarde and Alejandro Lazo explain, local air regulators weren’t required to inspect the GKN facility frequently. That limited oversight may have contributed to what records show was a yearslong compliance problem.
The chemical at the center of the crisis — methyl methacrylate — is also not subject to regulation under federal or state authorities. That could mean the damaged tank leaking chemical vapors was overseen under an alternate hazardous-materials program, which would leave regulators with fewer tools to manage its storage.
Angela Johnson Meszaros, an attorney for Earthjustice, said residents who live near facilities such as GKN likely assume someone is enforcing the rules. But that may not be the case when regulatory systems prioritize “getting facilities to return to compliance,” over safety.
- Meszaros: “We need to have a system that’s about making sure facilities are operating in a way that is safe — and some facilities may not have a culture that allows us to put our lives into their hands.”
Trump downplays good news on homelessness
Homelessness advocates are citing the latest federal report on homelessness — which shows the first decrease in the number of unhoused people in a decade — as evidence that current policies are working, despite the Trump administration’s contending that they’re not, reports CalMatters’ Marisa Kendall.
After a five-month delay, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development released its annual report to Congress Friday. California reported 181,934 unhoused people last year, a 2.8% decrease from 2024. Nationwide, an estimated 745,652 people are homeless, which is a 3.3% drop from the year before.
Jesse Rabinowitz, a spokesperson for the National Homelessness Law Center, said in a statement that the decrease occurred while former President Joe Biden was still in office, funding “things that we know work, like housing and support.”
But the federal government tied the drop to immigration, saying that it was “attributable to decreases in sanctuary cities.” It also focused instead on the fact that homelessness has increased 27% nationwide since 2013, when the country employed a “housing first” policy that prioritized providing unhoused people a place to live, even if they use drugs or alcohol.
And lastly: Big oil gains in cap-and-invest change?
Gov. Gavin Newsom is praising changes to California’s cap-and-invest program, which state regulators recently approved, to help keep refineries operating in California. But the changes could potentially steer billions of dollars in free pollution permits to oil companies, which has some environmentalists characterizing the changes as “deeply misguided.” Read more from Alejandro.
California Voices
CalMatters contributor George B. Sánchez-Tello: A Los Angeles group calling themselves “godmothers of the disappeared” has been providing a calm, intimate form of activism against federal immigration raids that contrasts with the surrounding chaos.
Other things worth your time:
It’s getting easier to buy a house — but not in SF. // San Francisco Chronicle
Is life really better in Tennessee? What happened to Californians who moved to the Southeast. // Los Angeles Times
What did Karen Bass mean when she talked about the destruction of Koreatown liquor stores in the 1992 riots? // L.A. Local
‘Wake-up call’ for chemical risks: Nearly 2M Californians live near a facility like the one that nearly exploded in Orange County. // The Orange County Register
What’s in it for Sacramento? A look at what the Sacramento region expects to get from a billion dollar investment in Major League Baseball. // Abridged
A changing of the guard in South L.A.: Latino candidates appear ready to rise in a city council district associated with Black leadership. // L.A. Material
How are tech billionaires spending their cash in CA’s elections? // The Guardian
The fossil fuel primary: Why Chevron and PG&E are spending so much to boost Becerra. // The San Francisco Standard
‘Like an angel’: Meet the helpers working in Bay Area immigration court. // KQED
Worry about ICE expansion: Protestors in Santa Clara County rally against a planned detention center in Gilroy. // The Mercury News
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