Political media habitually use “race” to describe contests for public office. However the word implies movement and therefore would be inaccurate if applied to this year’s election of a new governor.
Sixty-one names will be on the June 2 primary ballot, including 10 leaders who profess to be serious about seeking the office.
However, they aren’t racing. Rather, the eight top-polling Democrats seem to be in a children’s game, sitting in a circle staring at each other, waiting for someone to blink. Meanwhile, the two top Republicans are taking potshots at each other, potentially undermining the GOP’s only chance to elect a governor for the first time in two decades.
For weeks voter polls have found that three Democrats are locked in a tie, albeit at a puny level, around 10%, while the other five Democrats are buried in single digits.
California’s top-two primary election system has all candidates listed on the same ballot, regardless of party, with the two top finishers then advancing to the November general election.
Given the size of the field, anyone garnering around 20% in June would probably earn a place in the runoff — or about twice what the three Democrats at the top — Katie Porter, Eric Swalwell and Tom Steyer — currently have.
With mail voting set to begin in a month, the calendar is beginning to be a factor. Every ballot that’s mailed removes that voter from having his or her mind changed. One should expect, therefore, that those with even semi-realistic chances of making the cut would be waging all-out campaigns by now.
However, the only highly visible campaign is that of billionaire Steyer, who’s not only hopping around the state for personal appearances but shelling out millions of his own bucks for television and internet ads.
Much of Steyer’s campaign is aimed at Swalwell, who has obtained substantial union support, most prominently from the California Teachers Association. Swalwell also benefits from the threats of Donald Trump’s FBI to release files from its investigation of Swalwell’s relationship with a supposed Chinese spy.
Steyer and Swalwell seem to be vying for the most left-leaning bloc of Democratic voters, while Porter is coasting on the name identification gained during her losing campaign for the U.S. Senate two years ago and hoping that being the only woman in the trio will lift her into one of the top two finishes.
Democratic Party leaders are openly worried, though, that the two Republicans — Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco — could finish 1-2, thereby ensuring the election of a GOP governor. They would like the five lower-tier Democratic candidates to publicly surrender, thereby enhancing chances that a Democrat would make it to November.
However, members of that Democratic quintet show no signs of quitting, and if they continue to soldier on, despite scant support, the possibility of a 1-2 Republican primary finish continues.
The GOP’s only chance of achieving such an upset would be for Hilton and Bianco to operate as a team, pushing their support — 16% and 14% respectively in the latest poll — to the magic 20% level. However, they are campaigning as opponents, even though if just one of them makes the November ballot he would almost certainly lose to whichever Democrat survives the primary.
This static, who-will-blink-first scenario does contain one surprising aspect — the failure of San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan to unleash the blitz he needs to climb into contention, despite having apparently unlimited support from wealthy Silicon Valley figures who want a tech- and business-friendly governor.
On Wednesday, Politico reported there was a shakeup in the Mahan campaign due to what were termed differences over strategy. Maybe that explains why his campaign has been so anemic after his much-ballyhooed late entry. He hasn’t been racing much either.
via CalMatters https://ift.tt/RqVrtY9
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